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On October 9th I posted a blog about how it might take 4 years to get unemployment back to normal. I referred to a Wall Street Journal survey of 48 economists which shows that on average these economist believed that the official unemployment rate would peak at 10.2% in February of 2010. They were half right.

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A survey  done by the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) found that 80% of the 44 professional forecasters believed the economy is growing again. The economy has suffered four straight quarters of decline. The NABE President stated, “The great recession is over.”

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The Wall Street Journal just released a survey they did with 48 economists which shows that on average these economists don’t expect unemployment (the U3 official unemployment percentage not the true “underemployment” U6 rate) to fall under 6% until 2013.

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The official unemployment rate is now at the highest it’s been in 26 years at 9.7% (and seems to be closing in on 10% fast). The good news? The pace of job losses slowed just a little bit. So little however that I am finding few optimists that believe unemployment will begin to turnaround until mid 2010.

Unfortunately the official unemployment rate only tells part of the story. There are actually two unemployment rates: The official unemployment rate (U3) and the true unemployment rate (U6) also known as the underemployment rate.

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Today, Ben Bernake said the worst recession recession since the 1930s is very likely over. But he also said that the recovery would be slow and take time to create new jobs.The unemployment rate grew to a 26 year high of 9.7% up from 9.4% the month prior. Bernanke believes the unemployment rate will continue to rise even higher.

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I just received the CareerBuilder Q3 2009 Hiring Forecast. CareerBuilder and USA Today surveyed more than 2600 hiring managers and HR professionals.

They report that 68% of employers will make no change in their headcount in the third quarter. 15% of hiring managers expect to increase full time, permanent headcount in the third quarter. Although 10% anticipate a decrease in headcount this is a projected improvement from the previous 2 quarters.

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