RJ and Makay

Barclays Capital reported Thursday that prices for commercial property and casualty insurance have sunk to the levels they were at a decade ago, and there is no foreseen improvement in the near future. In fact, analysts expect soft pricing to linger for the next several years, partially due to multi-year deals becoming more common, and insurers holding off from increasing rates after large claims are filed.

Analyst Jay Gelb has been surveying insurance buyers two times yearly since 2000. He predicts prices will fall to 4% in January, from where they were at a year ago. Gelb said, “Prices have declined back to 2000 levels and there is no expectation of a cycle turn as the P&C market remains flush with excess capacity.” He says the “vast majority” of those responding to his survey had a least some of their coverage with American International Group Inc.’s Chartis unit, which has been seeing strong levels of improving customer retention from at least six months back. His top picks in the sector, however, are Travelers Companies, Inc. and ACE Ltd. and Arch Capital Group Ltd.